AME: On Time Travel and Political Polling

[00:00:01] This is a production of The Very Dental Podcast Network.

[00:00:10] Alan Mead is a dentist with too much time on his hands and too much recording equipment

[00:00:15] in his basement. Armed with an obsession to bring entertaining and informative content

[00:00:19] to the dental world in a way that's never been done before, I give you the Alan Mead

[00:00:26] Experience. Well, hello and welcome to another episode of The Alan Mead Experience. I'm your

[00:00:33] host, Dr. Alan Mead. I'm a dentist, podcaster, and someone who should not pay attention to

[00:00:41] polling. Yes, you heard me right. I said attention to polling. So it is the, I'm recording this

[00:00:49] the Sunday after the big November election. And I don't want to make this a political

[00:00:56] podcast. That's not what, that's not what my intention is. But I do have some interesting,

[00:01:01] I want to talk a little bit about, a little bit about election results and polling and

[00:01:06] stuff like that. So actually what I really want to talk to you about is this thing I've

[00:01:10] started doing over the last few years that I have found actually quite interesting and

[00:01:15] helpful. It's a little bit like journaling, but it's actually like a little bit like time

[00:01:21] travel too. And I've talked about it in other podcasts before, but I just want to read you

[00:01:26] an email that I wrote to myself and I wrote it on, let's see, it was November 9th, 2022.

[00:01:33] Now I shared this in the Very Dental Facebook group, like before the election, I think, just

[00:01:40] because it, I had it send to me on October 30th. So a week or so before the election, I had this

[00:01:47] thing send, but I wrote it in November of 2022. If you remember correctly, the elections in November

[00:01:52] 2022, that was where there were supposed to be a big red wave. Republicans were supposed to just crush

[00:01:59] it that year. And we were going to have the house and the Senate. And it was a, it was a rebuke

[00:02:03] against Joe Biden's presidency. And, and as it turned out, that didn't show up like at all. In fact,

[00:02:09] the, they didn't get the house or they didn't get the Senate. They barely held the house. Uh, so it

[00:02:14] was a, but the polling was, was very different than that. I'm just going to read you this email

[00:02:18] and then we'll talk a little bit more. A note to myself before the presidential election in 2024.

[00:02:25] It's the day after the midterm elections at this moment. We don't know who is control of the U S

[00:02:30] house or Senate polling and political pundits on podcasts suggested that there would be a red wave,

[00:02:36] but it really hasn't mirrored, but it hasn't really materialized. Both houses could go either

[00:02:40] way at this point. The Republicans probably took the house. The big story seems to be the voting

[00:02:45] machines in Arizona. And this is an aside. I don't remember, you know, it was two years ago. I don't

[00:02:50] remember any, anything about voting machines in Arizona. So that was interesting to me. It's possible

[00:02:55] that the balance of the Senate will come down to this controversy. The Democrat candidate who refused

[00:03:00] to debate the Republican candidate is, is the current secretary of state and is technically

[00:03:05] in charge of the election. So I'm betting you've probably heard stories about this one in the last

[00:03:09] couple of years. Just remember that before this election, all the pundits were suggesting a red

[00:03:14] wave was coming and it didn't really happen. It appears that both houses of Congress will be held

[00:03:18] by a thread. The polling was wrong again, just like it was in 2016 and 2012. I'm sending this email

[00:03:25] to just remind you to ignore the polling because they are probably getting it wrong,

[00:03:30] which is funny because it's, I said, I'm sending this email to, to just remind you. So I'm literally

[00:03:36] emailing it to myself, which is a little awkward. Like it's, it's a past me emailing the present me,

[00:03:41] which is interesting. I kind of love that concept and I know I've talked about it before, but so

[00:03:46] anyhow, I'm wondering who our candidates are. Trump has been claiming that he's going to announce

[00:03:50] that he's running on November 14th, which is next week. DeSantis just had a huge victory in Florida

[00:03:55] and it seems like he will be a very likely Republican candidate. Joe Biden seems old and

[00:04:01] inept and I'm wondering if he will step down or be replaced in some other way. Just remember the

[00:04:05] polls got it very wrong this time again. So like I said, that was November, 2022. And that got,

[00:04:12] that ended up in my email on October 30th of this year. So right before the election.

[00:04:18] And I read it. And what's interesting is I kind of, I ignored it a little bit is what it comes down

[00:04:24] to. I didn't, uh, I was paying attention to the polls like crazy. And all the polls were saying that

[00:04:30] it was, it was really close. Like it was a toss up election. Uh, all of them were sure that, uh,

[00:04:36] Harris was going to get the popular vote and, and because they all said they were sure of it,

[00:04:41] I was sure of it too. They said that it would be neck and neck in the electoral college, all that stuff.

[00:04:46] So again, I was listening to the polls. That's, that's the interesting thing. I, I,

[00:04:50] even with this email coming from myself in the past, it's like, it's like Terminator where the,

[00:04:56] where someone comes from the past to warn us. I was the Terminator for myself and I still ignored it

[00:05:02] and it's okay. I mean, I don't have that. I, I don't, I'm not that big of a political,

[00:05:06] uh, I didn't care that much, but it was interesting that walking into this, I, I wondered,

[00:05:11] you know, and I'm in a swing state, I'm in Michigan. So there was, I mean, we just had,

[00:05:15] I'm sure everyone did, but we just had ads blanketing the airways. It was, it was pathetic.

[00:05:19] And there were probably four Harris ads to every Trump ad too. There were a lot of,

[00:05:24] a lot of down ballot ads as well. It was nuts. Um, and we have TVs in the operator. So literally

[00:05:30] all day long, it was just fricking ads. It didn't matter what station you had it on or anything.

[00:05:33] There were ads everywhere, which is super annoying. And we're all tired of it. And we're all glad

[00:05:38] no matter who won or lost in all of these things. We're just glad that it was over.

[00:05:43] I think that's probably the feeling that a lot of people have on some level.

[00:05:47] Again, I'm not, uh, I don't want to make it particularly political here, but I just,

[00:05:51] what's so funny to me though, is that I warned myself to not take the poll seriously. I took

[00:05:56] the poll seriously and now apparently the polling got it wrong again. And, and there's a lot of

[00:06:04] pollsters that are kind of have made their, made their, you know, social media presence in their,

[00:06:09] their presence. I'm a big fan of Nate Silver, who is, he was the guy who started the 538 blog,

[00:06:15] which is a big, a big, uh, political horse race blog. And now he has his own thing that, uh,

[00:06:21] I've read his books. I've, I like him and he, it's amazing how he can claim he gets it right.

[00:06:27] No matter how wrong he gets it. I hate that a little bit. Uh, there were a lot of polls that were,

[00:06:33] if you looked at the polls before last Tuesday, you would have thought it was a toss up in all

[00:06:39] the States that mattered, which really sucks that only seven States mattered. The reality is,

[00:06:43] is that the rest of them, the rest of them go, they go the same way or they go the way that

[00:06:48] pollsters think every time. So there's only seven States that are going to make a difference. I,

[00:06:52] I hate that. I hate that. Um, so on some level, the electoral college makes it feel a little bit

[00:06:58] like the elect, having the electoral college means that only seven States are going to get attention

[00:07:03] from, from national candidates, which sucks. It really sucks, you know, but whatever it is,

[00:07:08] what it is. Boy, we had a lot of visits from Harris and Trump, both in Michigan, all over the place,

[00:07:13] even locally. And we, and, and the vice presidents too, even locally, all like just,

[00:07:17] they were here, they were in Michigan all the frigging time for the last month and a half. It was

[00:07:21] amazing. So, uh, if you were paying attention, you figured that it was, it was neck and neck

[00:07:27] in everywhere. Uh, what I got one thing, one poll that really got under my skin. There was a poll

[00:07:34] last Saturday. So a week, you know, eight days ago, put a poll out saying that Iowa was going to go

[00:07:42] for Harris by three points. That was her poll. Her, her, her name is, um, Oh, I I'm looking for it here.

[00:07:51] Uh, what's it called again? Okay. Her name is, uh, Ann Seltzer in every, every news story,

[00:08:00] every podcast that talked about this poll claimed that Ann Seltzer was, was the gold standard of

[00:08:05] polling in Iowa. She knows it all. She's the best. Um, so just, and she came out with a poll saying

[00:08:13] that, that Harris was going to, Harris was going to win Iowa by three points. And of course you put a

[00:08:19] poll out like that a week in advance of the, of the, well, no, it was not even a week. It was like

[00:08:25] four days or something in advance of the election. And all of a sudden people take that as, as real

[00:08:31] and say, Oh my gosh, Iowa is in play all of a sudden that like the momentum goes for one. I don't

[00:08:36] know. I feel like the polls on some level, are they out there to try and, and to, you know, change the

[00:08:41] outcome? I don't even know. So, uh, and as it turns out, uh, Iowa went for Trump by 13%, which is higher

[00:08:47] than any poll, even saying that he was going to win. So in Iowa went for Trump in 2020 and it went

[00:08:53] first in 2016. So this is, this was a real outlier of a poll, but the reality is they, they, they put a

[00:08:58] lot of stock in her as a pollster and she got it really wrong. And there's a lot of that going on.

[00:09:04] Let's be perfectly honest. If you were paying attention to the polls literally up until Tuesday,

[00:09:08] you didn't know how it was going to turn out. It was, it was not in, in, as the votes are counted,

[00:09:12] it wasn't close. He won all of the seven swing States. So I don't know why the polling is wrong.

[00:09:21] I've, I've heard people say that, that, uh, Trump supporters won't answer. Honestly, they don't want

[00:09:26] to answer. Honestly, they don't want to give them the satisfaction. I don't know. I don't, I've never

[00:09:31] been pulled. You hear lots of people say, I don't know where the polling comes from. Do they pull from

[00:09:35] phones? I don't even know, but what I'm saying now, and I'm going to email this to myself again,

[00:09:40] this is, this is, I'm going to literally, I'm going to forward the email from 2022. I'm going

[00:09:45] to add a little note from 2024 and I'm going to send it to, I'm going to send it right before the

[00:09:50] midterm elections in 2026, just because now, now this has become a fortune telling and time

[00:09:56] traveling exercise that I'm going to keep going. I think it's really funny. Uh, but I, I'm hoping

[00:10:01] that I can convince myself again to not pay attention to the polls, whatever the polls are saying,

[00:10:06] just ignore that. That's, it's probably not very valid unless, unless they change the way that

[00:10:11] they're polling. I think what we're going to hear in the next, probably, uh, probably month or so,

[00:10:15] a lot of pollsters are going to claim that they figured it out. They know what they got wrong.

[00:10:19] They won't get it wrong next time. I don't know. I'm, I think polling is, I think polling is broken.

[00:10:23] I think people don't want to be pulled. I think people, honestly, I think, I think it's dangerous

[00:10:28] enough to admit what your political opinions are nowadays that I don't think anyone wants to admit it.

[00:10:32] And they certainly don't want to go on the record. That's what I think. So in any case, I'm here to

[00:10:37] tell you there is nothing cooler than getting an email from yourself in the past, uh, from the

[00:10:43] past. I, I do it quite often now. I do it. I do it on days that I'm having that are really good days.

[00:10:50] I actually do it on days that aren't so good days just to remember that, you know, to remind yourself

[00:10:53] that sometimes it sucks. I try not to, I try not to be bum myself out too much on those bad days,

[00:10:59] but I just, it kind of keeps me grounded a little bit. And because, and I've said this a bunch on the

[00:11:04] podcast before too, you know, the stuff that's really getting under your skin at any moment,

[00:11:10] like in a week, you won't even remember what that stuff was. And every time I say that, I'm like,

[00:11:15] no, this time it really, things are horrible. No, no, they never are. It's always like,

[00:11:20] I can't remember what happened two weeks ago, much less two years ago. So this is interesting.

[00:11:25] It's an interesting exercise, not only an, Oh wow. I was thinking that way then, or, Oh wow.

[00:11:30] I didn't even remember that. Apparently there were voting machines in Arizona that were controversial

[00:11:35] back in 2022. I didn't remember that. Uh, like my memory clearly is not, uh, not particularly good

[00:11:41] and not particularly reliable. I think, I think all human memory on small details probably isn't,

[00:11:46] but it's also just interesting to know that, uh, that I've got some of these emails and I never quite

[00:11:52] remember when they're going to be sent. So, so you're kind of keeping your eyes open. It's cool.

[00:11:57] It's a cool practice that I've gotten into. I've never heard anyone else talk about it either,

[00:12:00] which is weird, but I feel like this whole, you know, sending yourself an email from the past,

[00:12:05] little time travel thing is really interesting. It doesn't have to just do with elections.

[00:12:09] Obviously it can be, it can be birthdays. It can be, uh, shoot anything, just having a regular day.

[00:12:18] I, I, there's no reason that you shouldn't do it because it's, you'll be surprised. You should try

[00:12:23] it. Just try it. Just do it like a week or two, uh, write yourself an email for two weeks down the

[00:12:27] line and tell me if it doesn't feel kind of cool to get a little, a little memory and a little hello

[00:12:33] from yourself in the past. Kind of interesting. So I, I highly recommend it. I think you should try it.

[00:12:38] Also, I think you should ignore any polls, political polls. I think it's not worth the,

[00:12:42] they're not worth the paper that they're printed on if they're printed on paper at all.

[00:12:46] And I really appreciate you guys listening to the show. If you haven't, you should go to the

[00:12:50] Very Dental Facebook group. You should go to Facebook, look up Very Dental and then request

[00:12:54] an invite if you're not in there. You need one of five passwords to get in. The passwords are

[00:12:58] Lipscomb, Papa Randy, Hornbrook, Timmerman, or what's the last one? What did I miss? Lipscomb,

[00:13:09] Papa Randy, Timmerman, Hornbrook, and McQuethy. That's the one. Okay. I missed McQuethy. So there you have it.

[00:13:15] You got to, you got three different or five different passwords. Any of them will work.

[00:13:20] Join the Facebook group. We have good conversations there. I don't let anyone in that's not a podcast

[00:13:25] listener. So I don't advertise this anywhere, but on the podcast. So anyone that's in there,

[00:13:29] you can bet they, they joined because they listened to, or they used to listen to the podcast.

[00:13:33] That's how I wanted it. Sometimes I think I'd love a great big Facebook group, like the very

[00:13:40] dental, like the, like the Dental Hacks Nation was. And then sometimes I remember what a dumpster fire

[00:13:45] that was. So, so I think we're keeping it pretty small. I think we have just over 800 members now

[00:13:49] and it grows. I, there's a couple that come in every week, not a ton podcast listeners. I'd love

[00:13:55] to have you there and I'm going to try and make sure we get guests in there to talk about it too.

[00:13:58] So thank you guys for listening. I really appreciate it. And we will catch you next episode.